Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)

Executive Summary

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (NYSE/TSX: CP) is the singular asset in North American rail: the only single-line railroad physically connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico, created by the April 2023 combination of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern. We have long admired CP for the quality of its franchise and the discipline of its management, and we think the CPKC franchise is arguably the best-positioned growth story among the Class I railroads. The trouble, as is so often the case with wonderful businesses, is the price. At roughly $123 USD per share the stock trades around 23-24x forward earnings and ~16x EV/EBITDA, a clear premium to its own ten-year median (~13x EV/EBITDA) and to most peers.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM rating with explicit ADD / TRIM price triggers