Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)

Executive Summary

Assured Guaranty is the leading U.S. bond insurer, with a 52% share of insured primary municipal par in the first half of 2026 and $281.4 billion of net par in force. At $69.49 it trades at 0.53x adjusted operating equity, 0.55x GAAP book and 0.37x adjusted book value. The discount is not about the book. It is about the return: $403 million of adjusted operating income over the last twelve months on $5.72 billion of equity, a 7.0% ROE. Per-share book value has compounded for thirteen straight years, almost entirely through buybacks that retired 81% of the 2013 share count, and that engine slowed this year as capital moved into fund finance and annuity reinsurance. Brightline’s September 24 Chapter 11 filing left the operating company, and the insured senior bonds, outside the case with principal intact. This report maps five specific levers that could lift ROE toward 10%, and what each point of return is worth per share.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM’s overall rating and the specific price levels that would change our view