AppLovin Corporation (APP)

Executive Summary

AppLovin is now a pure-play, AI-driven mobile advertising platform, and it is one of the most profitable businesses of any size in the public market: 88% gross margins, an 84% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $4.4 billion of trailing net income on $6.8 billion of revenue. Over the past eight months the stock has fallen 58% from its December 2025 high while diluted earnings per share went from $4.53 in 2024 to $9.75 in 2025 to $13.01 on a trailing basis. That is a multiple collapsing, not a business breaking. Three things did the damage: a wave of short-seller reports in early 2025, an SEC investigation into Axon’s data-collection practices, and an August 5 print that was the first time since the IPO that AppLovin missed the midpoint of its own revenue guidance. Two of the three have now resolved, and the SEC closed its inquiry without action. The third is real: 53% revenue growth against 59% the prior quarter, with third-quarter guidance implying roughly 47%. Our full report works through the reported financial record and the accounting basis break inside it, the quarter-by-quarter deceleration, the balance sheet and the buyback, the competitive position against Unity’s Vector engine, the platform-dependency risk that sits underneath the whole model, and what the current price actually requires the business to deliver.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM’s overall rating and the specific price levels that would change our view