Builders FirstSource (BLDR)

Executive Summary

Builders FirstSource is the largest supplier of structural building products, trusses, wall panels and installation services to America’s home builders: about 565 locations in 43 states and $15.2 billion of 2025 sales. At $58 the stock is down 72% from its March 2024 high. Management has cut 2026 EBITDA guidance twice, the Federal Reserve has resumed raising rates, and last week S&P moved the stock out of the 500 and into its SmallCap index. The chairman, meanwhile, has bought roughly $60 million of stock since May 2025, and the company has retired half its shares since 2021. The catch is how it paid for them: $8.3 billion of buybacks at an average of $81 left net debt at 3.6 times EBITDA going into the trough. In this report we work through what normal earnings look like for the post-BMC company, why leverage makes the downside case deeper than the headline multiple suggests, and what would have to happen in housing for the recovery case to pay.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM’s overall rating and the specific price levels that would change our view