Diageo plc (DEO)

Executive Summary

Diageo plc is the largest spirits company in the world, owner of Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, Tanqueray, Don Julio, Casamigos, Crown Royal, Bulleit, Baileys, and Guinness, and the stock has been more or less left for dead. The ADR closed Tuesday at $85.04, down roughly 39 percent from a 2021 high near $223 and trading inside its 52-week range of $72.45 to $116.41. The bear case is straightforward and well-known: an inventory-driven Latin America profit warning in November 2023, a tequila-led North American slowdown, weakness in Chinese white spirits, an unscheduled CEO departure, a halved interim dividend in early 2026, and a leverage ratio at 3.4 times adjusted EBITDA versus management’s own 2.5–3.0 times target range. The bull case is the franchise itself.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM rating with explicit ADD / TRIM price triggers