Dollar General Corporation (DG)

Executive Summary

Dollar General is, in our view at T&T Capital Management, the multi-year turnaround story in U.S. discount retail. Todd Vasos returned as Chief Executive Officer in October 2023 — his second tour, after leading the company from 2015 to 2022 — and inherited a franchise whose growth had stalled, whose stores were operationally challenged, and whose stock had collapsed approximately 65 percent from peak. At $104.33 the stock trades at approximately 14.4x consensus FY2026 EPS — a meaningful discount to the long-term average of approximately 20-22x for the franchise. FY2026 guidance reflects deliberately measured pace: revenue growth of 3.7-4.2 percent, same-store sales of 2.2-2.7 percent, EPS of $7.10-$7.35.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM rating with explicit ADD / TRIM price triggers