McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)

Executive Summary

McDonald’s is one of the highest-quality compounders in the public market, and after a slide to a fresh 52-week low near $265 it is finally on sale at a price a long-term owner can appreciate. Strip away the burgers and McDonald’s is a brand-licensing and real-estate machine: roughly 95% of its ~45,000 restaurants are franchised, so it collects high-margin royalties and rents rather than running grills. The result is ~46% operating margins, ~16-18% returns on capital, ~$7 billion of free cash flow, and a 49-consecutive-year dividend-increase streak that reaches Dividend-King status in 2026. At roughly 21-23x earnings and a ~2.8% yield — the low end of its post-2020 range — this report examines whether a wide-moat compounder at a reasonable multiple is the opportunity it appears to be, and what the GLP-1 and value-pricing debates mean for the franchise.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM rating with explicit ADD / TRIM price triggers