Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)

Executive Summary

Merck & Co. at $122.55 per share is, in our view at T&T Capital Management, the highest-quality big-pharma franchise trading at a meaningful discount to its long-cycle multiple because of one specific concern: the Keytruda patent cliff in 2028. Keytruda is the largest-selling pharmaceutical drug in history at approximately $30-plus billion of annual revenue and represents approximately 46 percent of MRK’s 2024 sales. The market is pricing as if the cliff will be catastrophic. We disagree.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM rating with explicit ADD / TRIM price triggers