Pool Corporation (POOL)

Executive Summary

Pool Corporation is the largest wholesale distributor of swimming-pool and outdoor-living products in the world — roughly 450 sales centers and an estimated 40-50% share of a fragmented industry, about four times the branch footprint of its nearest competitor. Over the last fifteen years it compounded revenue near 8% and diluted EPS near 15%, funded almost entirely by internal cash flow while raising its dividend for fifteen consecutive years. The stock has been cut nearly in half from its 2024 high to around $210 as new pool construction fell from its pandemic peak toward roughly 58,000 units and discretionary backyard spending stalled under higher financing costs. This report examines what the market may be extrapolating too far: that roughly 64% of revenue is non-discretionary maintenance on an installed base of 5.3-plus million in-ground pools, the fifteen-year financial record, the normalized-earnings-power framework, the new-CEO transition, the expanded share-repurchase program, the notable open-market insider buying, and the honest risks a buyer must weigh.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM’s overall rating and the specific price levels that would change our view