Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

Executive Summary

We have long regarded Union Pacific as one of the highest-quality industrial franchises in North America: a regulated duopoly asset, impossible to replicate, that hauls the physical economy of the western two-thirds of the United States across roughly 32,000 route miles. The business converts a heavy fixed-cost network into industry-leading margins, and it has spent the better part of two decades shrinking its share count while raising its dividend. At $262.64, UNP trades at about 21.6x trailing and 20.5x forward earnings, an EV/EBITDA near 14.8x, and a 2.1% dividend yield. That is neither a screaming bargain nor an obvious overpay; it is roughly in line with the stock’s own five-year history and a modest premium to where we would prefer to deploy fresh capital.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM rating with explicit ADD / TRIM price triggers