VICI Properties (VICI)

Executive Summary

VICI Properties owns the real estate beneath Caesars Palace, MGM Grand and the Venetian, and 2026 has been a solid operating year: second-quarter AFFO rose 4.6% to $0.62 a share, full-year guidance moved up, leverage fell to 4.9x and the dividend was raised to $0.46 a quarter. The stock has gone the other way. At $23.51 it trades at 9.6x AFFO with a 7.8% yield, $9.50 below its October 2025 high. The reason is a single lease. Caesars’ regional master lease, about 21% of VICI’s rent, has thin coverage and is expected to be renegotiated once Tilman Fertitta completes his acquisition of Caesars. In this report we price the problem three ways: as lost AFFO per share, as an implied cap rate on the whole portfolio (about 8.5% today), and against the market value already lost, which is roughly what the entire regional lease is worth at VICI’s historical multiple. We also lay out the tenant and deal timeline and what the dividend looks like under each outcome.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM’s overall rating and the specific price levels that would change our view