Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

Executive Summary

Chipotle is, in our view at T&T Capital Management, one of the highest-quality fast-casual restaurant franchises in U.S. consumer discretionary — operating approximately 3,800 company-owned restaurants with industry-leading unit-level economics (~$3.2M average unit volume) and approximately 27 percent restaurant-level margin. At $48.20 per share (post the 50-for-1 split in June 2024) the stock trades at approximately 26 times consensus FY2026 EBITDA + approximately 32 times FY2026 EPS — premium multiple reflecting the unit-economics moat + new-store growth runway. Brian Niccol led Chipotle from a 2018 turnaround through 2024 before departing to become Starbucks CEO in August 2024. Scott Boatwright was named interim CEO + then permanent in November 2024.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM rating with explicit ADD / TRIM price triggers