Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)

Executive Summary

Molina Healthcare is a focused Medicaid managed-care organization — providing managed-care services to approximately 5 million Medicaid beneficiaries across 21 states. The company also operates a smaller Medicare Advantage business and marketplace exchange products. The stock has corrected 45 percent over the past twelve months on the unprecedented Medicaid redetermination cycle (the post-COVID public-health-emergency unwind), which has driven utilization pressure as healthier members were disenrolled while sicker members remained. EPS dropped from $22 in FY2024 to $3.60 trailing — the steepest cyclical earnings compression in U.S. health insurance. At $181.06, MOH trades at 50x trailing earnings (cycle-depressed) and 30.8x forward.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM rating with explicit ADD / TRIM price triggers