The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)

Executive Summary

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company owns the dominant consumer lawn-and-garden brands in America — Scotts, Miracle-Gro, and Ortho — along with the exclusive marketing rights to consumer Roundup. After a top-of-cycle expansion into cannabis-cultivation supply nearly wrecked its balance sheet with heavy impairments and back-to-back losses, the turnaround is now real and measurable: adjusted gross margins are recovering, adjusted earnings rose sharply in fiscal 2025, leverage has come down toward roughly four times, and the company is spinning off its Hawthorne unit. At about $65 per share and a ~$3.8 billion market capitalization, Scotts pairs a wide-moat core franchise with a dividend it maintained through the crisis — and a new chief executive, Nate Baxter, who took over in June 2026. Our full report covers the fifteen-year record, the deleveraging path, the brand moat, the retailer-concentration and leverage risks, and the recovery still ahead.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM rating with explicit ADD / TRIM price triggers