Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)

Executive Summary

Blackstone Mortgage Trust originates senior floating-rate loans against commercial real estate in North America, Europe and Australia, managed by a subsidiary of the world’s largest alternative asset manager. At roughly $14.28 per share and a ~$2.44 billion market capitalization it trades at about three-quarters of its reported book value and carries a double-digit dividend yield — the kind of setup that deserves careful work rather than a quick yes. Our report does that work, starting with the number most income investors miss: since book value peaked in 2019 the company has paid $14.92 per share in dividends while book value fell $8.56, which is a very different outcome than the headline yield implies. Against that, the portfolio has genuinely been rebuilt — office exposure halved since 2019, multifamily and industrial now 51% of the loan book, 88% non-mark-to-market debt and no corporate maturities until 2029. The full report covers the record since Blackstone recapitalized the vehicle in 2013, the credit reserves, the dividend-coverage math, the external-management structure, and the peer group.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM’s overall rating and the specific price levels that would change our view