Vistra Corp. (VST)

Executive Summary

Vistra is the second-largest competitive power generator in the United States — roughly 44,000 megawatts of nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar and storage, paired with a retail book serving about 5 million customers from California to Maine. Its shares have fallen 38% from a September 2025 high of $219.82 to $137.09 in a year when every operating metric improved: second-quarter Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA rose 31% to a record $1,767 million, 2026 guidance was reaffirmed with management pointing at or above the midpoint, S&P and Fitch both moved the company to investment grade, and Vistra signed twenty-year nuclear power purchase agreements with Amazon Web Services and Meta that underwrite plant life into the 2050s and 2060s. This report works through what that dislocation is worth: the nine-year financial record, why GAAP earnings are the wrong lens for a hedged generator, the segment economics, a same-date peer comparison against Constellation, NRG, Talen and PSEG, the balance sheet after the pending $4.0 billion Cogentrix acquisition, the capital-allocation record, the softer ERCOT forward curves management itself flagged, and the honest risks an investor has to weigh.

What’s Inside The Full Report

• 15-year financial summary table — revenue, net income, GAAP & adjusted EPS
• Valuation framework — current multiples vs. 5-year historical range
• Peer comparison table — multiples, margins, balance-sheet metrics
• Base case, bull case, bear case price targets with explicit math
• Competitive position and economic moat analysis
• Management and capital allocation track record
• Balance sheet review — leverage, credit ratings, distribution coverage
• Insider activity — recent open-market buys / sells with interpretation
• Strategic acquisitions and divestitures history
• Sell-side consensus and where TTCM differs
• Detailed risk factors specific to the name
• Bull case and forward catalysts to watch
• TTCM’s overall rating and the specific price levels that would change our view